According to TrendForce, global sales of NEVs, encompassing BEVs, PHEVs, and FCVs, are set to hit 13.03 million units in 2023, marking a 29.8% growth rate. This growth, though significant, marks a slowdown from the 54.2% surge witnessed in 2022. BEVs constitute the bulk, with 9.11 million units sold at a growth rate of 24%, while PHEVs reach 3.91 million units, boasting a robust growth rate of 45%.
China maintains its stronghold as the largest NEV market, commanding a staggering 60% of the global market share.
However, growth in China is tapering due to the high base effect, with limited sales expansion in other regions failing to offset this decline. Consequently, NEV sales growth is anticipated to ease, with an estimated 16.87 million units projected to be sold in 2024, accompanied by a growth rate of 29.5%.
In the BEV segment, Tesla leads the pack in 2023 with a market share of 19.9%, closely pursued by BYD, which has narrowed the sales gap to a mere 248,000 units. BYD’s surge is attributed to its steady performance in China and its expanding international presence, buoyed by the activation of overseas bases. TrendForce predicts BYD to be a potent challenger to Tesla’s dominance in the BEV market this year.
Meanwhile, GAC Aion secures third place for the first time, while SAIC-GM-Wuling and Volkswagen slip to fourth and fifth place respectively. Luxury titans BMW and Mercedes-Benz escalate their electrification efforts, securing sixth and eighth positions respectively. Hyundai Group, including Hyundai and KIA, maintains their positions through sustained sales growth.
In the PHEV market, BYD and Li Auto clinch the top two spots, with Li Auto posting an impressive 182% growth rate in 2023.
Li Auto’s surge is fueled by its strategic focus on mid-size and large SUVs, catering to family-oriented consumers. Despite BMW and Mercedes-Benz holding the third to fifth spots, they face declines in Europe due to sluggish PHEV sales.
Jeep experiences a notable 33% surge, climbing to sixth place. Additionally, Chinese brands such as Changan, Denza, and Deepal make their debut in the top ten rankings, underscoring the competitive edge of the Chinese market.TrendForce anticipates that as Chinese brands accelerate PHEV exports, established automakers will encounter heightened pressure on growth margins.
As China’s domestic growth decelerates, automakers are establishing overseas bases to sustain momentum.
TrendForce highlights Chinese brands’ advantages in vehicle diversity, pricing, and smart features. Overcoming challenges related to a single production site is crucial for sustained growth. However, potential trade barriers may impede the global spread of Chinese NEVs.
In the U.S., a ban on Chinese-made battery components from 2024 onward threatens the eligibility of many EV models for subsidies.
While automakers like GM offer equivalent federal tax credits of $7,500, disruptions in the Chinese supply chain hinder efforts to lower EV prices, posing additional challenges for the industry.
